The Problem for Methodological Likelihoodism
I have argued that methodological likelihoodism is false by arguing that an adequate self-contained methodology for science provides good norms of commitment vis-à-vis hypotheses, articulating minimal requirements for a norm of this kind, and proving that no purely likelihood-based norm satisfies those requirements.
The Solution? Appeal to Long-Run Operating Characteristics
One might attempt to rescue methodological likelihoodism by lowering one’s standards. Perhaps no purely likelihood-based norms of commitment are among the canons of rationality, but such norms are nevertheless useful in practice when deployed judiciously. [Read more…]